If we assume Moore's Law using a 20 month period as our doubling rate, there will be 3 doubles every 5 years or 2 ^ 3 which equals 8 as the multiplier for each Exponential Period (EP). For each EP, we need to understand Relative Processing Power (RPP), and $/RPP. In other words how powerful are processors getting and how does the cost of a processing unit decrease in cost.
Specifically if we use the term EP0 (i.e. EP=0) it means the following:
- 5 Year Period:
- EPBeg = (CurrentYr)+ 5 * (EP-1) = 2006
- EPEnd = (CurrentYr)+ 5 * EP = 2011
- RPP = 8 ^ EP = 1
- $/RPP = $1000/RPP = $1000
So, if we think of the impact on something 10 years out, it can be expressed as EP2 (i.e. EP=2):
- 5 Year Period:
- EPBeg = (CurrentYr) + (5 * (EP-1)) = 2016
- EPEnd = (CurrentYr) + (5 * EP) = 2021
- RPP = 8 ^ EP = 64
- $/RPP = $1000/RPP = $15.65
This may sound a little convoluted, but stick with me. My plan is to socialize this notion so that when we speak about the future we think exponential change vs. linear.
For example, take any current technology; such as Siri (Apples new iPhone 4s app) and ask what it might look like by the end of EP1, EP2, EP3, etc. and what the impact of this evolving technology will have on economics, policy, education, health, and culture in general. It will probably be a little difficult to look past EP2 or EP3 since the amount of change is so great, but as we develop enough EP1 and EP2 views, it will form a foundation that will allow for more informed EP3 views.
The chart below shows the RPP and $/RPP for each EP; -5 thru +8. The EPEnd is shown on the X-Axis, with the Y-Axis showing RPP (in blue on the left) and $/RPP (in red on the right) on logarithmic scales.
How far into the future can you see?
How far into the future can you see?
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| Thinking Exponentially in terms of power and cost is key to understanding the future and its impact on everything we know today. |
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