The Future Ain't What it Used to Be!

I have been meaning to start a blog about a subject that I find facsinating and can't stop following. I have coined this the Technology Tsunami. Most people feel it coming but just can't seem to fully articulate its source or full implications. We see it everywhere we look. In the toys we buy, the education our kids consume, the media around us, and most importantly the work that we do.

At the base of all of this is the exponential changes that are being ushered in by the advances in technology that allow us to pack twice as much power into a processor every 18 months or so ... known as Moore's Law. This doubling effect takes a while to build up. While the rate of change is fairly constant, the absolute change from period to period is pretty dramatic.



Using 2011 as a base year (1 unit of processing power representing a typical $1000 notebook computer) here is what follows assuming we double about 3 times every 5 years:

• 2011 - 2016: 1 Unit grows to 8 ... net change of 7
• 2016 - 2021: 8 Units grows to 64 ... net change of 56
• 2021 - 2026: 64 Units grows to 512 ... net change of 448
• 2026 - 2031: 512 Units grows to 4096 ... net change of 3584
• 2031 - 2036: 4096 Units grows to 32,768 ... net change of 28,672

Note that each 5 year period is experiencing changes in computing power 8 times greater than the previous 5 year period. Understanding the past is not sufficient to predict the future ... you need to think exponentially.

So, in 25 years we will see our current processor power grow by a factor of 32,768. Holding the price of a processor fairly constant this would suggest that $1000 of computing power would cost about 3 cents.

What does it mean when so much power can be created at so little cost?