Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Looking Forward by Exponential Periods

I have been thinking a lot about how to create a vocabulary to communicate about the impact of exponential technology change on all of the products, services, relationships, economics, education, etc. that we deal with on a day to day basis.

If we assume Moore's Law using a 20 month period as our doubling rate, there will be 3 doubles every 5 years or 2 ^ 3 which equals 8 as the multiplier for each Exponential Period (EP). For each EP, we need to understand Relative Processing Power (RPP), and $/RPP. In other words how powerful are processors getting and how does the cost of a processing unit decrease in cost.